The Oscars

Here is what will in time become my legendary annual pre-Oscar predictions. If I get any of these wrong I'll be totally stunned...

Picture

"Atonement"
"Juno"
"Michael Clayton"
"No Country for Old Men"
"There Will Be Blood"

A pretty solid list - I only disliked There Will Be Blood, although even with this I understand its merits. Just didn't do it for me. Some are predicting a Michael Clayton or Juno upset but I think they'll go with the front runner. The Coens are due and splits between the directing and picture categories are rare (although less rare recently), and I can't see it happening here so I'll go with their film.

What will win: "No Country for Old Men"
What should win: "Michael Clayton"
What wasn't (unbelievably) even nominated: "The Lookout"

Director

Julian Schnabel - "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
Jason Reitman - "Juno"
Tony Gilroy - "Michael Clayton"
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen - "No Country for Old Men"
Paul Thomas Anderson - "There Will Be Blood"

This has been the Coens to lose for a long time. They wont.

Who will win: The Coens
Who should win: The Coens
Who wasn't (unbelievably) even nominated: Ang Lee - "Lust, Caution"

Actor

George Clooney in "Michael Clayton"
Daniel Day-Lewis in "There Will Be Blood"
Johnny Depp in "Sweeney Todd"
Tommy Lee Jones in "In the Valley of Elah"
Viggo Mortensen in "Eastern Promises"

Happy with everyone nominated except Depp, who's often great but not here. Why give a Best Actor nomination to the lead in a musical when he can't sing? Not that he was bad mind you, it's just that this was an absolutely terrific year for leading men. There could be at least another 5 worthy nominees.

Who will win: Daniel Day-Lewis
Who should win: Viggo Mortensen
Who wasn't (unbelievably) even nominated: Gordon Pinsent - "Away From Her"

Actress

Cate Blanchett in "Elizabeth: The Golden Age"
Julie Christie in "Away from Her"
Marion Cotillard in "La Vie en Rose"
Laura Linney in "The Savages"
Ellen Page in "Juno"

You couldn't pay me enough money to sit through another 2 hours of Elizabeth (well if any readers are actually thinking about offering me vast sums of money to test my resolve, maybe we can talk) so I congratulate those that did, but nominating Cate Blanchett again, for playing the same role seems a waste, even if she was terrific. She's absolutely no chance at all. Linney too will be just happy with the nomination. I really feel any of the other three can win, which flies in the face of most handicappers who have Christie as the prohibitive favourite. I'll stick my neck out and plump for an Ellen Page upset. Two reasons for this: 1. She's likely to be the only homegrown acting winner of the night if she wins, 2. She's young and youth seems to help in this category (Helen Mirren's win last year was the first 'older' winner for years).

Who will win: Ellen Page
Who should win: Julie Christie
Who wasn't (unbelievably) even nominated: Wang Tei - "Lust, Caution"

Supporting Actor

Casey Affleck in "The Assassination of Jesse James"
Javier Bardem in "No Country for Old Men"
Philip Seymour Hoffman in "Charlie Wilson's War"
Hal Holbrook in "Into the Wild"
Tom Wilkinson in "Michael Clayton"

Terrific set of nominees. Any one of them a worthy winner.

Who will win: Javier Bardem
Who should win: Casey Affleck
Who wasn't (unbelievably) even nominated: Christopher Mintz-Plasse - "Superbad"

Supporting Actress

Cate Blanchett in "I'm Not There"
Ruby Dee in "American Gangster"
Saoirse Ronan in "Atonement"
Amy Ryan in "Gone Baby Gone"
Tilda Swinton in "Michael Clayton"

Tilda Swinton seems to have edged ahead of Cate Blanchett in the running, who having won an Oscar a couple of years ago may not be ready for her second.

Who will win: Tilda Swinton
Who should win: Saoirse Ronan
Who wasn't (unbelievably) even nominated: Vanessa Regrave - "Atonement"

Original Screenplay

"Juno" - Diablo Cody
"Lars and the Real Girl" - Nancy Oliver
"Michael Clayton" - Tony Gilroy
"Ratatouille" - Brad Bird
"The Savages" - Tamara Jenkins

Who will win: Diablo Cody
Who should win: Tony Gilroy
Who wasn't (unbelievably) even nominated: Steven Knight - "Eastern Promises"

Adapted Screenplay

"Atonement" - Christopher Hampton
"Away from Her" - Sarah Polley
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" - Ronald Harwood
"No Country for Old Men" - The Coens
"There Will Be Blood" - Paul Thomas Anderson

Who will win: The Coens
Who should win: The Coens
Who wasn't (unbelievably) even nominated: James Vanderbuilt - "Zodiac"

Cinematography

"The Assassination of Jesse James": Roger Deakins
"Atonement": Seamus McGarvey
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly": Janusz Kaminski
"No Country for Old Men": Roger Deakins
"There Will Be Blood": Robert Elswit

The most important category of the night in terms of what a travesty it'll be if they don't win is this one. Roger Deakins is nominated twice. He should win for Jesse James. I'll be fine if he wins for No Country. If however he comes home empty handed I'll be so distraught I may never be able to watch films again.

Who will win: Roger Deakins - "The Assassination of Jesse James"
Who should win: Roger Deakins - "The Assassination of Jesse James"
Who wasn't (unbelievably) even nominated: Rodrigo Prieto - "Lust, Caution"

Score

"Atonement" - Dario Marianelli
"The Kite Runner" - Alberto Iglesias
"Michael Clayton" - James Newton Howard
"Ratatouille" - Michael Giacchino
"3:10 to Yuma" - Marco Beltrami

Who will win: Dario Marianelli
Who should win: Marco Beltrami
Who wasn't (unbelievably) even nominated: James Newton Howard - "The Lookout"